USA Mid-term election

[bjmdds]

Harris Poll now:

[bjmdds]

Gallup: Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September's 36%. It is the party's most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.

[bjmdds]

[bjmdds]

Marsha Blackburn is now up 14 points in the polls despite Taylor Swift's plea for opponent Phil Bredesen in the Tennessee race for Senate These Hollywood morons cannot stay out of their own way and will never get it Once Taylor Swift stopped being a "country" singer and went "pop", her roots started rotting away and now she is another deranged poor soul with limited effect in shaping the attitudes of the multitudes.

[Omega]

Notice all the headline about swift drive people to register to vote never mention which party, at least stories I saw didn’t say


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[bjmdds]

In the 66 districts identified by pollsters as “majority makers”—meaning they are rated tossups or are only leaning toward one party or the other—the Republicans hold a one point advantage over the Democrats, 47 to 46 percent This caravan will doom the Democrats

[bjmdds]

Crunch time big O. Pelosi thinks her party has the majority in the bag for the House on Tuesday. I am not so sure. It boils down to 3 states, NY, New Jersey, and California Republicans maintaining their collective seats to keep control of the House. Your prediction

[Kristatos]

538.com, which has a pretty good track record when it comes to predicting elections, thinks that the Republicans will retain the Senate but narrowly lose the house.

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[Omega]

Didn’t they get the last two elections wrong. I’m thinking they were the ones saying 86% chance of Clinton


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[Kristatos]

Didn’t they get the last two elections wrong. I’m thinking they were the ones saying 86% chance of Clinton

I think it was more like 70%. And to be fair, I think pretty much everyone got the last election wrong. Maybe Rasmussen predicted a Trump victory, but they always have Republicans ahead, so I think that was a case of a stopped clock being right twice a day.

[Omega]

Isn’t 538 Nate silver?


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[Kristatos]

Isn’t 538 Nate silver?


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Yes, he's the head honcho, though it's not a one-man show.

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[Omega]

He was dead on for Obama election but hasn’t been right since trump. Got the special elections wrong, and ironically silver is out there with the same odds on the house race he gave Hillary.

But I get metrics are metrics are metrics. Well see how good they are today.


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[Kristatos]

He was dead on for Obama election but hasn’t been right since trump. Got the special elections wrong, and ironically silver is out there with the same odds on the house race he gave Hillary.

But I get metrics are metrics are metrics. Well see how good they are today.


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Yeah, he is only as good as his data. Nobody gets it right all the time, but he has a better track record than most.

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[Omega]

I’m more curious than anything about the results. To me it feels like media is in their little bubble insulated from the realities of daily life. And the parties are standing off to the sides throwing talking points at will trying to see what finally clicks with the public and drives momentum, but right now both parties are frozen too afraid to change what they’ve been doing for 18 months, because their political scientists say trust us.
I don’t include trump in the parties because he’s still not part of the republican machine, the donor class still has a strangle hold on both parties and both parties believe sooner or later things go back to normal.
Watching one of the many rallies trumps holding this weekend, people are getting in line 2 days before and most 8 to 12 hours before. the biggest thing I noticed was ... crap Tapatalk is acting up ...


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[Kristatos]

It's not looking like a wave election to me.

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[Omega]

Biggest thing I noticed was the candidates trump was pushing are standard cookie cutter party guys with no charisma, they look the part and talk the part but the audience went dead when trump yielded the floor to them. These relentless attack on trump even though he is the most powerful man on earth has let he keep playing David to the establishments Goliath.

I truly thought by this time the Democrats and media would finally figure out how trump does it, he’s a better communicator and reads his audience with a instinct about where to take his policies. Easily got to be a few dozen Democrats who could do the same thing but I believe the parties are in lockdown afraid if they follow trump they get cut off for a few election cycles when normality returns. They have yet to think what if their normality is gone?


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[Omega]

It's not looking like a wave election to me.

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I think there going to be a few regional matches that fall blue, but on a whole when the senate went out of play so did the house seats in those areas.


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[bjmdds]

Again, the 3 key states for the House are NY, California, and New Jersey. If the Republicans keep 80% of those House seats, they will maintain control. There are ad nauseam ads here in NYC touting the same Democrats over and over and it must be Bloomberg money financing this, because it's costing them a fortune. I hope Bloomberg rots in hell with the $80 million he threw at the election nationwide

[bjmdds]

Biggest thing I noticed was the candidates trump was pushing are standard cookie cutter party guys with no charisma, they look the part and talk the part but the audience went dead when trump yielded the floor to them. These relentless attack on trump even though he is the most powerful man on earth has let he keep playing David to the establishments Goliath.

I truly thought by this time the Democrats and media would finally figure out how trump does it, he’s a better communicator and reads his audience with a instinct about where to take his policies. Easily got to be a few dozen Democrats who could do the same thing but I believe the parties are in lockdown afraid if they follow trump they get cut off for a few election cycles when normality returns. They have yet to think what if their normality is gone?


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Big O, the media and the left-wing Democrats are clinically insane They believe in anarchy and sedition. Trump was a novice at this in 2015 when he started his actual run. Now, there is NOBODY better at campaigning than he is, nor was there ever anybody close in the past He gets it His energy level is off the charts as well Democrats and elitist Republicans don't get it, and never will Look at John Kasich for example. This guy is cracked and out of his mind and a disgrace to this country and he can also rot in proverbial hell with his thought of the illegals coming out of the shadows I only hope illegals affect HIS family, not those who oppose this madness I have had it with ALL Washington elitists, from the National Review to the NY Times By the way, the 11 million illegals is a FAKE number It's more like 30 million or more You know who I am voting for. Who are you voting for in your state?