The BJMDDS General Discussion Thread......

[Mazer Rackham]

Gonna go to an IMAX screening with my cousin today. Looking forward to it.

Just go before the d**n weekend !
Good to see you buddy.

[Mazer Rackham]

Here's how I came up with my estimate, which I freely admit is guess work:

I was thinking $65 million-$70 million puts you in the neighborhood of something like 2011's Thor and Captain America movies. Actually, it'd mean *more* people went to see Skyfall because those two Marvel films had higher 3D ticket prices (which Skyfall doesn't) in addition to Imax.

Second, and this is anecdotal evidence, I was not sensing a lot of interest outside of the hard-core fan base. I'd see things about how the Opening Ceremonies of the Summer Olympics would gin up interest. But I knew well-read people who weren't aware and this was right at the time of the Olympics. I could see how it would help in the U.K. but not in the U.S. nearly as much.

I was tempted to raise it based on the European ticket sales. But, using my local theater as an example, I saw it had only one screen scheduled for Skyfall. It had at least 3 for other movies, including The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises. So I opted to stand pat at $65 million-$70 million. We'll see by Sunday afternoon.

Looking at 2012 it's been softer except for the mega movies. 2011 I'd go for a bigger opening. Friday night we'll know the trajectory.

Code: Select all

Amazing Spider-man $62M
MIB 3 $54M
Snow White/Huntsman $56M
Taken 2 $49M

2011 
Hangover II $85.9M
Pirates of the Caribbean 4 $90M
Fast Five	$86M
Rise of the Planet of the Apes $54M
X-men First Class $55

[katied]

I'm going tomorrow Yeah Yeah, I know but I have a gift card which = a free movie. I'm not expecting much, though.Some of the newer ads are a bit better.Not by much. though. I can't help but think someone was reading the comments about the first few trailers and decided to punch things up.

[bjmdds]

Weekend Forecast (Nov. 9-11) Boxoffice mojo:
1. Skyfall - $78.2 million (4-day, including Thursday's IMAX shows)
2. Wreck-It Ralph - $33 million (-33%)
3. Flight - $16 million (-36%)
4. Argo - $6.5 million (-36%) "Through Tuesday, it had already earned $321 million, and it's now the highest-grossing movie of 2012 in the U.K. with over $91 million. It will pass Casino Royale's franchise-record $427 million by early next week at the latest, and with China, Japan and Australia still on the way, a $500 million total is a lock at this point. In 2008, Quantum of Solace set a new Bond opening weekend record with $67.5 million, which is about where Sony is expecting Skyfall to wind up this weekend. Adjusting for inflation, though, Quantum's debut would be closer to $75 million, which seems like a safe level given all the positive indicators for Skyfall right now."

[Omega]

Weekend Forecast (Nov. 9-11) Boxoffice mojo:
1. Skyfall - $78.2 million (4-day, including Thursday's IMAX shows)

3 day only for the purpose our contest. Since I'm running the pool I can pick any three days I choose Sorry Sony your Thursday Friday Saturday total sucks

Opening weekend BO game:
Napoleon Solo & Omega $65-70 million
Sony $67
LA Times $75
Dr No & EA $80
BJ $78-82
Mazer $60

I have my doubt because the last Sony projection was right on the money for the UK. And in the US it was below. In fact MIB3 and Spider-man didn't make their projections by the end.

Does veterans day have a memorial day bump?

[Omega]

Here's how I came up with my estimate, which I freely admit is guess work:

I was thinking $65 million-$70 million puts you in the neighborhood of something like 2011's Thor and Captain America movies. Actually, it'd mean *more* people went to see Skyfall because those two Marvel films had higher 3D ticket prices (which Skyfall doesn't) in addition to Imax.

Second, and this is anecdotal evidence, I was not sensing a lot of interest outside of the hard-core fan base. I'd see things about how the Opening Ceremonies of the Summer Olympics would gin up interest. But I knew well-read people who weren't aware and this was right at the time of the Olympics. I could see how it would help in the U.K. but not in the U.S. nearly as much.

I was tempted to raise it based on the European ticket sales. But, using my local theater as an example, I saw it had only one screen scheduled for Skyfall. It had at least 3 for other movies, including The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises. So I opted to stand pat at $65 million-$70 million. We'll see by Sunday afternoon.

I wonder if spiderman not having free movie sticker for spyfall (as far as I can tell) will hurt the opening. For the big movies this summer I got offers from XBOX live, PSN and other to buy the previous movie digital release (+ all the dvd coming out at that time) or a related studio movie and get a free ticket. Nothing like this has happened to. The only free tickets i know of are for the re-release of Cr & QOS and the Best buy Bond blu-rays.

I think the 65-70 million bet is safe over the 3 day (Fri-sun), if only because its what Sony says.

[Omega]

Hate it when I'm right Hey Napoleon I guess $14 of that $2 million is yours

One thing working against Skyfall's opening weekend figure, though, is its Thursday IMAX debut. Sony isn't currently releasing theater count information, though the assumption is that it's playing in at least 300 of IMAX's over 330 domestic locations. Based on IMAX's track record, Skyfall could earn as much as $2 million on Thursday, which is money it would have earned over the traditional three-day weekend.

Looks like Mazer set his bet right a the pass fail margin.

[bjmdds]

Breezy Point in Queens NYC after Sandy: http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_ ... 3-1108.jpg

[FormerBondFan]

Weekend Forecast (Nov. 9-11) Boxoffice mojo:
1. Skyfall - $78.2 million (4-day, including Thursday's IMAX shows)
2. Wreck-It Ralph - $33 million (-33%)
3. Flight - $16 million (-36%)
4. Argo - $6.5 million (-36%) "Through Tuesday, it had already earned $321 million, and it's now the highest-grossing movie of 2012 in the U.K. with over $91 million. It will pass Casino Royale's franchise-record $427 million by early next week at the latest, and with China, Japan and Australia still on the way, a $500 million total is a lock at this point. In 2008, Quantum of Solace set a new Bond opening weekend record with $67.5 million, which is about where Sony is expecting Skyfall to wind up this weekend. Adjusting for inflation, though, Quantum's debut would be closer to $75 million, which seems like a safe level given all the positive indicators for Skyfall right now."

Looks like the traditional Bond is no more.

[Blowfeld]

Breezy Point in Queens NYC after Sandy: http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_ ... 3-1108.jpg

Looks like a warzone! Could be any war ravage place in the 20th century. Hard to believe this near one of the largest cities on earth in the richest nation in history!

[stockslivevan]

Gonna go to an IMAX screening with my cousin today. Looking forward to it.

Just go before the d**n weekend !

Sorry, but my folks plan on seeing it on the weekend and after this viewing I am looking forward to joining them.

Good to see you buddy.

[Kristatos]

This "shock admission" isn't a shock to me.

[The Sweeney]

This "shock admission" isn't a shock to me.

I've seen this story circulate a few places now. I think its the usual lazy journalist BS, twisting a story so it will sell. Craig probably said something along similar lines but purely in jest, and it has been taken totally out of context.

[Napoleon Solo]

This "shock admission" isn't a shock to me.

I've seen this story circulate a few places now. I think its the usual lazy journalist BS, twisting a story so it will sell. Craig probably said something along similar lines but purely in jest, and it has been taken totally out of context.

Rolling Stone is out now and he's on the cover. I may check it out to see the full context. I suspect he did say it, wasn't joking about it, but he was describing what turned out to be a passing feeling (maybe how he felt during the uncertainty during the MGM bankruptcy, etc.).

[Napoleon Solo]

This "shock admission" isn't a shock to me.

I've seen this story circulate a few places now. I think its the usual lazy journalist BS, twisting a story so it will sell. Craig probably said something along similar lines but purely in jest, and it has been taken totally out of context.

Rolling Stone is out now and he's on the cover. I may check it out to see the full context. I suspect he did say it, wasn't joking about it, but he was describing what turned out to be a passing feeling (maybe how he felt during the uncertainty during the MGM bankruptcy, etc.).

Also, I tend to be skeptical of much of what DC says. Compare his comments about Quantum in 2008 with what he said 2011-12. Or compare what he said about Mendes in 2011-12 with what he said about Marc Forster in 2008. Yes, I know he was promoting a move in '08, etc., etc., etc. But he's very inconsistent except for certain phrases ("for f*ck's sake").

[Napoleon Solo]

Here is the Rolling Stones's preview to the article. The article itself isn't online.

http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news ... d-20121109

[bjmdds]

This "shock admission" isn't a shock to me.

I've seen this story circulate a few places now. I think its the usual lazy journalist BS, twisting a story so it will sell. Craig probably said something along similar lines but purely in jest, and it has been taken totally out of context.

Why do you keep on defending this ogre? No matter how foul mouthed he is, no matter his disdain for the ONLY role he makes money in, you still defend him. What if you find out he really meant it? Then what? Defend these statements Sweeney: "DANIEL Craig doesn’t like living life in the public eye.

The James Bond star — who’s married to Rachel Weisz — admits he was “f**king shaken up” by fame.

Craig says signing up to play James Bond was hard for him because he had previously mostly starred in indie films, and it took him some time to adjust to being an A-list star.

“It threw me for a loop, quite honestly. It really f**king shook me up and made me look at the world in a different way. It changed my life,” he said.

“It just confused the hell out of me. Fame and fortune, for want of a better expression, is f**king scary. My background is not well off. And there aren’t many people you can ask for advice about dealing with that.

“I couldn’t find a lot of fun in fame. I’m not very materialistic. I mean, I love nice things, but I give a f**k what is going on in my head you know? So trying to get that straight really has been, it’s been…

“You know, there’s that great expression, ‘Know thyself’? I think I probably stopped knowing myself for a few years. And really, you’ve got to find your own way back.”

[shaken not stirred]

I really don't get all this, if craig hates being in the public eye then why in gods name play the role of 007 (a cinematic icon), that's like being thrown onto standup when like Me you hate crowds, it makes no sense.

Maybe he should consider a different career if he doesn't want to be in the public eye because that happens in movies, tv etc.

[FormerBondFan]

DC is a pawn.

[The Sweeney]

This "shock admission" isn't a shock to me.

I've seen this story circulate a few places now. I think its the usual lazy journalist BS, twisting a story so it will sell. Craig probably said something along similar lines but purely in jest, and it has been taken totally out of context.

Why do you keep on defending this ogre? No matter how foul mouthed he is, no matter his disdain for the ONLY role he makes money in, you still defend him. What if you find out he really meant it? Then what? Defend these statements Sweeney: "DANIEL Craig doesn’t like living life in the public eye.

To be honest BJ, this part of DC I respect more than anything else. I really cannot stand the BS pretentious Hollywood brigade. DC is down-to-earth, and trying hard to remain so. He is a Northerner, from working class roots, the same as me. If I was in his shoes, I would probably feel the same way he does about fame. The fact that he swears doesn't bother me at all. I am a huge Oasis fan so expect my idols to swear like troopers in front of journalists. I'm quite into that rock star attitude, and DC has this too.

Across the pond, my favourite movie star is Robert Redford and Steve McQueen - both actors hated being in the public eye too much. Redford retreats to his Sundance ranch whenever he can, and McQueen preferred drinking beers and riding bikes than doing the pretentious celeb Hollywood scene.