Skyfall prediction thread

[Kristatos]

I was looking at the US box office gross for the Bond franchise. In 2012 dollars, CR made over $200 million, while QOS made $185 million. If this is a pattern, then I'm going to go for $160 million for Skyfall. That's probably completely wrong, but I'm rubbish at predictions. Adjusted worldwide figures are harder to come by, due to different currencies and exchange rates. QOS actually made less money worldwide, despite inflation - $584 million against $596 for CR. Again, if I use a pattern, that translates to $572 for Spyfail.

Like I say, probably completley, wrong, but post your box office predictions here. The closest to the real figure wins, um, nothing.

[The Sweeney]

I'm going for similar figures to CR.

This is due to the fact that Bond has been away for a few years, audiences miss Bond when he's not around, QoS has been forgotten about by most non-Bond fans (general movie audience), and if Skyfall is along similar lines as CR, reviews and word-of-mouth will probably be decent, which will pull in the constant figures.

So US - over $200 million
Worldwide - over $600 million

[bjmdds]

USA-way under $200 million, in fact it is impossible for it to approach that. Worldwide depends on how much depression people want to watch over and over in a supposed spy film. What is the UK feeling these days of DC? We need that input. Here in the USA, we know he is a box office stinker.

[The Sweeney]

USA-way under $200 million, in fact it is impossible for it to approach that. Worldwide depends on how much depression people want to watch over and over in a supposed spy film. What is the UK feeling these days of DC? We need that input. Here in the USA, we know he is a box office stinker.

It's Bond that will sell, not DC. People will flock to the cinemas in droves not because DC has a new film out called Skyfall, but because there is a new Bond film out called Skyfall.

I've also noticed a nasty trend of gloom and doom in Hollywood films at the moment, with downbeat endings. The Grey, starring Neeson, for example. Great scenes, good performances, good action, gripping, yet completely ruined by a ridiculous downbeat, depressing ending.

I guess Hollywood is reflecting the current depressing times we live in which surprises me, as I thought the trend would be to do the opposite and cheer people up with uplifting films, so audiences can forget their problems at home.

[Kristatos]

I've also noticed a nasty trend of gloom and doom in Hollywood films at the moment, with downbeat endings. The Grey, starring Neeson, for example. Great scenes, good performances, good action, gripping, yet completely ruined by a ridiculous downbeat, depressing ending.

And which made $77 million. Worldwide. Like I said elsewhere, I think that if The Dark Knight Returns fails to match The Avengers's box office, it could signal a swing back to escapism from Hollywood.

[FormerBondFan]

Like I said elsewhere, I think that if The Dark Knight Returns fails to match The Avengers's box office, it could signal a swing back to escapism from Hollywood.

Rises could beat Avengers in the US but not worldwide though. And I don't think it will beat The Hobbit's numbers as well.

[The Sweeney]

I've also noticed a nasty trend of gloom and doom in Hollywood films at the moment, with downbeat endings. The Grey, starring Neeson, for example. Great scenes, good performances, good action, gripping, yet completely ruined by a ridiculous downbeat, depressing ending.

And which made $77 million. Worldwide. Like I said elsewhere, I think that if The Dark Knight Returns fails to match The Avengers's box office, it could signal a swing back to escapism from Hollywood.

I still think TDKR will do well at the BO, despite any bleak tone to the movie. The franchise is solid enough to entice audiences to see how the trilogy ends.

Maybe Skyfall will have an upbeat tone to its movie, complete with the one-liners, humour and gadgets, despite focusing purely on the drama elements shown in the trailer - who knows?

[Omega]

TDKR will be a curious movie a lot of places are saying it will do lower BO the TDK. I can see how it might but kind for believe it will have a lot of love left over from TDK. Than again TDK was 4 years ago if its a reason for the drop off maybe there is more hope for Bond and people forgetting how bad Qos was. I doubt it but..........,,,,, I think a new Bond would do easily $700 or $800 million just because the first new Bond movies always do slightly better than the last with the previous Bond. Then it is looking back a seeing a pattern that may not be there, just the market conditions the year of the new movie..

[A Crag-like face]

I've also noticed a nasty trend of gloom and doom in Hollywood films at the moment, with downbeat endings. The Grey, starring Neeson, for example. Great scenes, good performances, good action, gripping, yet completely ruined by a ridiculous downbeat, depressing ending.

And which made $77 million. Worldwide. Like I said elsewhere, I think that if The Dark Knight Returns fails to match The Avengers's box office, it could signal a swing back to escapism from Hollywood.

I still think TDKR will do well at the BO, despite any bleak tone to the movie. The franchise is solid enough to entice audiences to see how the trilogy ends.

Maybe Skyfall will have an upbeat tone to its movie, complete with the one-liners, humour and gadgets, despite focusing purely on the drama elements shown in the trailer - who knows?

You're quite right, Skyfall could well be a very upbeat movie. I think that, stepping back from my anti-Craig stance, EON is not doing a good job promoting Skyfall so far. QOS took a lot of flak for not being "Bondian" enough (whatever that exactly means). It's too violent, too downbeat and lacking too many of the things audiences want from Bond. So what does EON do? They realese a teaser that contains one tiny mention of 007, and make the tone unrelentingly bleak. What the hell? Do these people have some sort of box office death wish?

[bjmdds]

NOBODY cares about M's past and deception within MI6 causing her to be killed. NOBODY cares about a depressed Bond who requires a close shave by a field agent who might be deemed MP. FBF and all know it. This is DC's last stand impersonating Bond.

[The Sweeney]

This is DC's last stand impersonating Bond.

I am not sure this will be Craig's last Bond film, BJ. I've always thought, right back from when he was picked as 007 back in 2005 that he would do 4 movies in the franchise - not 3 and not 5. I always thought he would do 4. It seems to be the right amount now for an actor to do before starting to look too old in the part, or audiences growing weary of the actor in the role. Long gone are the days of an actor doing 7 films. Brozza's reign was just about right in terms of length.

I appreciate most here don't want Craig as Bond, never have done, and would love him to bow down after this film, but I honestly don't think this will happen. Craig has the backing of EON (Babs in particular) - he is her Bond, that she brought in and is responsible for, and she will keep hold of him until Craig wants to quit the role.

And I don't think he is ready to quit after this outing, judging by his lack of BO success elsewhere. Bond is Craig's guaranteed cash cow.

The only way Craig would bow after this is if Skyfall is a massive, huge flop at the BO - but I really don't see that happening either.

[Napoleon Solo]

This is DC's last stand impersonating Bond.

I am not sure this will be Craig's last Bond film, BJ. I've always thought, right back from when he was picked as 007 back in 2005 that he would do 4 movies in the franchise - not 3 and not 5. I always thought he would do 4. It seems to be the right amount now for an actor to do before starting to look too old in the part, or audiences growing weary of the actor in the role. Long gone are the days of an actor doing 7 films. Brozza's reign was just about right in terms of length.

I appreciate most here don't want Craig as Bond, never have done, and would love him to bow down after this film, but I honestly don't think this will happen. Craig has the backing of EON (Babs in particular) - he is her Bond, that she brought in and is responsible for, and she will keep hold of him until Craig wants to quit the role.

And I don't think he is ready to quit after this outing, judging by his lack of BO success elsewhere. Bond is Craig's guaranteed cash cow.

The only way Craig would bow after this is if Skyfall is a massive, huge flop at the BO - but I really don't see that happening either.

I basically agree with The Sweeney. But there is one other possibility where Skyfall is Craig's finale. That would be if Eon gets into another collective funk and it's 2016 or later before the next Bond movie. Sony and MGM want Bond 24 for 2014 but it remains to be seen whether Eon can (or even wants) to deliver on that timetable. Anyway, if there is a Bond 24 in 2014, I think Craig will be it. If Bond 24 is in 2015, probably still Craig. Going out beyond that? We'll see.

[Mazer Rackham]

This is DC's last stand impersonating Bond.

I am not sure this will be Craig's last Bond film, BJ. I've always thought, right back from when he was picked as 007 back in 2005 that he would do 4 movies in the franchise - not 3 and not 5. I always thought he would do 4. It seems to be the right amount now for an actor to do before starting to look too old in the part, or audiences growing weary of the actor in the role. Long gone are the days of an actor doing 7 films. Brozza's reign was just about right in terms of length.

I appreciate most here don't want Craig as Bond, never have done, and would love him to bow down after this film, but I honestly don't think this will happen. Craig has the backing of EON (Babs in particular) - he is her Bond, that she brought in and is responsible for, and she will keep hold of him until Craig wants to quit the role.

And I don't think he is ready to quit after this outing, judging by his lack of BO success elsewhere. Bond is Craig's guaranteed cash cow.

The only way Craig would bow after this is if Skyfall is a massive, huge flop at the BO - but I really don't see that happening either.

I basically agree with The Sweeney. But there is one other possibility where Skyfall is Craig's finale. That would be if Eon gets into another collective funk and it's 2016 or later before the next Bond movie. Sony and MGM want Bond 24 for 2014 but it remains to be seen whether Eon can (or even wants) to deliver on that timetable. Anyway, if there is a Bond 24 in 2014, I think Craig will be it. If Bond 24 is in 2015, probably still Craig. Going out beyond that? We'll see.

Slick Willie is on point more or less. And Craig only has four (total) in his contract.

Danno nearly didn't comeback for Bond 23 however he did come back. Skyfall will determine if he stays or goes, can a EON make MGM/Sony money this time is the question -total budget of $300m will help. Possibly if it is a huge critical success and a near thing financially the studio will look they other way. What killed Dalton was he lost the investors money they wanted him gone and Brozza in his place (he was named specifically in memos), a lot happened between 1989 and 1994 the one thing that did not change was nobody was going to put up money for Dalton to come back. It goes to show how important having a Bond of Record is, a franchise without a lead actor is just about useless. Too many unknowns.

Also GE didn't cement Brozza in his role, TND did. There were a lot of nervousness about how well the second outing would do if it had failed to bring in money it would be the end of Bond. Sadly it was also when the budgets started to balloon.

If Skyfall can make MGM money they have less reason to want replace the aging Craig. However if movie is poorly received -a change too far for the audience, he is gone. Babs does love her boy she would be hesitant to let him go which is why certain things have to happen to force a change (or prevent it).
Right now I'd say it's in the prevent change mode. A lot of entropy is leading to redefining Bond for the new decade, almost happened too.

Sony/MGM have a lot of sway over Craig's future they can give him work -or not, in the end he'll follow their lead. Babs is a nice stalker to have but there are limits to her purse (and influence).

The real wild card is Craig, he could decide to leave on his own if its another Quark -he was very upset about how QoS was received, if it goes well he could say its time to go on a high note. That's one of Craig's problems he isn't the most stable actor.

[Mazer Rackham]

I'm going for similar figures to CR.

This is due to the fact that Bond has been away for a few years, audiences miss Bond when he's not around, QoS has been forgotten about by most non-Bond fans (general movie audience), and if Skyfall is along similar lines as CR, reviews and word-of-mouth will probably be decent, which will pull in the constant figures.

So US - over $200 million
Worldwide - over $600 million

That's an ambitious total Sween. Shouldn't be but it is.

$200m in US is a lofty goal even with inflation and IMAX. At the moment it doesn't feel like a possibility. Decent opening, with two good week with little to no drop (after the opening), then maybe.

It will probably land in the 500 to 600m range, below 500m it's a outright failure. Above 600 nosing towards Hunger Games & Ghost Protocol it will have done well enough, might not make money depending on circumstances.

Realistically they have to pack them in the opening and first two weeks. Bigger the opening the better, right now it's a tight scheduled and not a lot of time for Skyfall to make its mark. Quark and CR had time to do a slow crawl although with QOS it became a painful drag by the end.
Doesn't help the release is staggered like it is, although staggering hasn't hurt some of the bigger movies this year, but they are not the kind of franchise movie Bond is.

[bjmdds]

Sweeney, we all know DC is the green vegetable's loin cloth and she is the SOLE reason he is impersonating Bond since 2005's press conference where he stepped off the boat and uttered those famous first words as Bond, "that scared the s--t out of me". He has an option for a 4th film. It's up to MGM, not Eon, to can him. Boar-bara will keep him on for 10 films if allowed, even if they all lose money. Mazer, this film has one weekend only to make money, not two or three. If word of mouth out of the UK is poor, it's done here in the USA. If it opens under $60 million, it's done here too. There are far too many other movie choices starting the 16th of November through the Thanksgiving holiday. Dream House aired during Christmas. I knew that would be fatal to it. It was. Bond 23, a depressing film with 8 caskets and DC getting Freuded over is no way to spend Thanksgiving. It won't fly, just like this stupid Spiderman film will never come close to Maguie's either.

[FormerBondFan]

It won't fly, just like this stupid Spiderman film will never come close to Maguie's either.

But better for Andy's Spidey to make more than Bond 23 at the box office (especially here in the US) than the other way around.

[Napoleon Solo]

Some of the key numbers to look for when Skyfall comes out:

http://hmssweblog.wordpress.com/2012/05 ... ill-watch/

[Blowfeld]

If SF does not best QOS numbers I think the media will not be able to help itself too many snarky comments and so little time. Sony is probably buying up tickets now to make SF a awesomespectacularssuperduper opening

It's been four years ticket prices have sky-rocketed not to hit some of the old mile-markers would be embarrassing, however they didn't last time and nobody flinched, then again the opening was big, so was the drop off.... I don't know.

I think they could be brewing the perfect storm of failure, of course I'm not happy about the reboot to begin with and the changes leaking seem pointless emo additions. I'm not sure they are giving the audience what they want, I think they have their idea of what they want to do, at lest Daniel does, and d**n all else.

Coming back with the same actor after fours years and a very bad movie takes a lot of faith. I'm not sure Craig still has the interest of the population. Will the name James Bond still bring them in? Old days I would have said yes but this isn't really James Bond any more, it's an experiment in.. I'm not sure what.

Anybody every read those DC comics Elseworlds? It's like on of those except Blofeld was raised by the Bonds, switched at birth you see.

[A Crag-like face]

If SF does not best QOS numbers I think the media will not be able to help itself too many snarky comments and so little time. Sony is probably buying up tickets now to make SF a awesomespectacularssuperduper opening

It's been four years ticket prices have sky-rocketed not to hit some of the old mile-markers would be embarrassing, however they didn't last time and nobody flinched, then again the opening was big, so was the drop off.... I don't know.

I think they could be brewing the perfect storm of failure, of course I'm not happy about the reboot to begin with and the changes leaking seem pointless emo additions. I'm not sure they are giving the audience what they want, I think they have their idea of what they want to do, at lest Daniel does, and d**n all else.

Coming back with the same actor after fours years and a very bad movie takes a lot of faith. I'm not sure Craig still has the interest of the population. Will the name James Bond still bring them in? Old days I would have said yes but this isn't really James Bond any more, it's an experiment in.. I'm not sure what.

Anybody every read those DC comics Elseworlds? It's like on of those except Blofeld was raised by the Bonds, switched at birth you see.

I think that something to take into consideration is how staggered the openings are across the world. SF premieres in the UK something like a month before it gets to the US. I don't think any Bond film ever opened at the same time all over the world, but I'm not sure we've ever seen openings drag out quite as much as they do with SF.

Why this matters is bad word of mouth, which is global nowadays with the internet. Battleship was released overseas long before it premiered in the US, and while it did well overseas, it flopped badly here in the US and stands to lose Universal quite a lot of money. I think that Battleship's failure was directly tied to putting off the American premiere. Blockbusters like Battleship and SF depend on huge opening weekends. That's why so much money is spent saturating the media with advertisements befiore the film opens. It gets lemmings with more money than sense to go out and watch a movie they no little about because "it looked cool in that ad". The idea is to give the consumer lots of exposure to the product (in this case a movie) before they have a chance to examine the product too discerningly.

My theory is that by releasing Battleship in such a staggered fashion, Universal lost the chance at a huge opening weekend in the US irregardless of Battleship's quality. People turned out overseas, but they came home from the movie, wrote scathing reviews on IMDB, twitter and Facebook, and thus gave US consumers a chance to look past the saturation advertising too.

So EON better hope that SF is as great a movie as they're claiming, because it doesn't matter how well it does in the UK, if the word of mouth is bad or indicates that it's another emo-fest, it could get really ugly as the film slowly opens around the world.

[The Saint 007]

It's hard to tell how well Skyfall will do. I've heard many fans say that after seeing Quantum Of Solace, they will not be going to see the next film. On the other hand, the Bond producers are trying to get the fans hyped with classic bond elements coming back, like Q and the Aston Martin DB5, in order to get them to see Skyfall. The best thing to do is to just stay home and watch the older Bond films or something. If we keep giving them more money, then the Bond producers will simply continue to carry on with this current direction.