2010 forecasts

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Kristatos
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2010 forecasts

Post by Kristatos »

I've been looking at the websites www.realclearpolitics.com and www.fivethirtyeight.com to see their forecasts for the midterm US elections in November. These two sites present "polls of polls", and so are slightly more reliable than individual polls. The forecasts as of the time of writing this:

Fivethirtyeight.com
Senate - D:52.7 R:47.1 Other:0.2
House - D: 211.6 R:223.4 Other:0
Governors - D:19.6 R:30.1 Other:0.3

Figures are averages, hence the lack of whole numbers, and so may not add up to the total number of seats available.

Realclearpolitics.com
Senate - D:47 R:45 with 7 toss-ups, average R +7 seats
House - D:192 R:205 with 38 toss-ups, average R +3%
Governors - D:14 R:28 with 8 toss-ups, average R +7 states

This has been a public information service. Don't blame me if you don't like the results, I'm just the messenger.
"He's the one that doesn't smile" - Queen Elizabeth II on Daniel Craig
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Kristatos
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Posts: 12525
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:26 pm
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Re: 2010 forecasts

Post by Kristatos »

I thought it would be interesting to compare the actual results with the predictions. The tally at the time of writing this (taken from the BBC website) was:

Senate - D:51 R:46 3 results still undeclared.
House - D:185 R:239 11 results still undeclared.
Governorships - D:8 R:22 7 results still undeclared (of the 37 states holding elections for governor).
"He's the one that doesn't smile" - Queen Elizabeth II on Daniel Craig
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